The digital money space is huge and growing. Our research at Shift Thought tracks over 4000 players and the myriad of relationships between the various entities in this space. The volumes and values in question are enormous. There is clearly a lot to play for.
So who will win the Digital Money game?
This is not an idle or academic question. The answer is vital to many of us.
Investors eyeing this lucrative market need to understand who to back, for how much and how long. Active or prospective players in this space need to understand how to position themselves,the shape and size they need to achieve, and the strategies and options available to them. Governments and regulators need to understand the nature and evolution of the market and its services and the impact on existing and evolving regulatory frameworks. And consumers need to understand the unfolding digital money revolution, its impact opportunities and risks it will pose. The winner will influence all of these.
Without the luxury of a crystal ball, there is no easy answer. This is because the ecosystem is bewilderingly complex and dynamic, fuelled by technology, innovation, disruptions, changing regulations and player configurations, the variety of products and services and often opaque practices and charges. However, an analysis of the evolution of other complex ecosystems allows us to draw parallels and predict with some confidence what the eventual winner will look like, if not precisely who it will be.
The key to the answer is a framework we at Shift Thought have developed, that enables us to see the big picture and understand the evolving ecosystem in context. In this series of blogs I will explore this framework and along the way discuss several related issues including:
- What is the game, what is the prize, why is it worth playing, and what does it mean to win?
- How to make sense of the evolving products and services, the innovators and disruptors and the changing regulatory environments?
- Why positioning is so critical and what positions are desirable and when?
- What are sensible goals, what options and strategies exist and how to choose between them?
Through this series of blogs, I hope to trigger thinking, provide clarity, provoke challenge and thus improve our collective understanding of this space
Great question. Looking forward to seeing the framework — and to fitting my own ideas and thoughts about it into the discussion.
Kind regards,
Gregg
This is such a big big pie that I see opportunity for many winners – with a few clear industry leaders. As with the automotive industry and the internet before, there will be many opportunities for niche distinction and clear technology and regulatory advantage – and the opportunity to back a winner.
Like the car and the internet, digital money will be a ‘utility’ of the future.
The more important question, I believe, is what historic conditions are better predictors of possible failure, so that you can steer away from those ventures or exit them at the right time. I look forward to this framework offering me that advantage.
Great tool!